Global Ensemble Prediction System

The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 16 days into the future (up to 39 days twice a week on Mondays and Thursdays at 00UTC for calculating forecast anomalies). The GEPS produces different outlooks (scenarios) to estimate the forecast uncertainties due to the nonlinear (chaotic) behavior of the atmosphere. The probabilistic predictions are based on an ensemble of 20 scenarios that differ in their initial conditions, their physics parameters which are randomly perturbed by a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPP) method, and the stochastic perturbations (kinetic energy). A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Weather elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. Data is available on some fifteen vertical levels on a global latitude-longitude uniform grid with 0.5 degree horizontal resolution (about 39km). Predictions are performed twice a day.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Last Updated April 17, 2026, 19:21 (UTC)
Created April 17, 2026, 19:21 (UTC)
contact_email ECWeather-Meteo@ec.gc.ca
contact_person {"en": "Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Meteorological Service of Canada,+01-819-997-2800,ECWeather-Meteo@ec.gc.ca", "fr": "Gouvernement du Canada; Environnement et Changement climatique Canada; Service météorologique du Canada,ECWeather-Meteo@ec.gc.ca"}
criticality_level []
data_dictionary ["climatology_meterology_atmosphere"]
geographic_scope []
open_canada_collection fgp
open_canada_date_published 2022-05-02 00:00:00
open_canada_keywords {"en": ["Probabilistic predictions", "Global", "Ensemble", "Precipitation", "Weather forecasts", "Humidity", "Air temperature", "Wind", "Meteorological data", "Snow", "Weather and Climate", "Provide Weather Information Products and Services", "Deliver Weather Products and Services to Clients", "Meteorological Service of Canada", "Weather and Environmental Operations", "Unclassified", "International"], "fr": ["Prévisions probabilistes", "Global", "Ensemble", "Précipitation", "Prévisions météorologiques", "Humidité", "Température de l'air", "Vent", "Données météorologiques", "Neige", "Temps et climat", "Fournir des services et des produits d'information sur les conditions météorologiques", "Livrer des produits et des services météorologiques aux clients", "Service météorologique du Canada", "Opérations météorologiques et environnementales", "Non Classifié", "Internationale"]}
open_canada_subject ["nature_and_environment", "science_and_technology"]
sensitivity_level unrestricted
title_fr Système global de prévision d'ensemble
update_frequency continual