Projected Sea Ice Thickness change based on CMIP5 multi-model ensembles

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice thickness, based on an ensemble of twenty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Projected change in sea ice thickness is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of sea ice thickness change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. 

             Twenty-year average changes in sea ice thickness (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided.

             Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

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Last Updated April 17, 2026, 20:43 (UTC)
Created April 17, 2026, 20:43 (UTC)
contact_email ec.ccds.info-info.dscc.ec@canada.ca
contact_person {"en": "Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada,1-800-668-6767,ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca", "fr": "Gouvernement du Canada; Environnement et Changement climatique Canada,ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca"}
criticality_level []
data_dictionary ["climatology_meterology_atmosphere"]
geographic_scope []
open_canada_collection fgp
open_canada_date_published 2018-09-06 00:00:00
open_canada_keywords {"en": ["Projections; climate; climate change; percentiles; ensembles; climate model; sea ice; cmip5; anomaly", "Climate", "Climate change", "Weather and Climate", "Provide Climate Information Products and Services", "Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction", "International", "Science and Technology Branch", "Atmospheric Science and Technology", "Unclassified"], "fr": ["projections; climat; changement climatique; percentiles; ensembles; modèle climatique; glaces de mer; CMIP5; anomalie", "Climat", "Changement climatique", "Temps et climat", "Fournir des services et des produits d'information sur le climat", "Approfondir les connaissances scientifiques et formuler de nouvelles méthodes de recherche le climat et le changement climatique", "Internationale", "Direction générale des sciences et de la technologie", "Sciences et technologie atmosphériques", "Non Classifié"]}
open_canada_subject ["nature_and_environment", "science_and_technology"]
sensitivity_level unrestricted
title_fr Changements dans l’épaisseur de la glace de mer basés sur les ensembles multimodèles CMIP5
update_frequency as_needed