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URL: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/3156e7bf-6f11-46f7-b70a-51b6d4e3835b
Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in minimum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily minimum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded minimum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target.
Projected change in minimum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected minimum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of minimum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.
Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled mean minimum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.
Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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Additional Information
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Data last updated | January 16, 2026 |
| Metadata last updated | January 16, 2026 |
| Created | January 16, 2026 |
| Format | HTML |
| License | License not specified |
| Datastore active | False |
| Has views | False |
| Id | 2da821a3-cb01-4cc5-819f-e075946dd6a6 |
| Package id | 390d1f8a-b5fd-4417-8b04-85f7aa694dd7 |
| Position | 0 |
| State | active |